“Countries including Brazil, India, Israel, and the UAE are eminently capable of ramping up investments aimed at securing new ways to access increased computing capacity,” the Brookings Institute said. “Preventing companies in middle-tier countries from relying on the US to supply computing chips is a surefire way to push them into building non-US alliances that include stronger technology ties with China.”
The rule could also complicate the global AI landscape in ways the US may not anticipate, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization, forecast last week. It could “breed resentment, not cooperation” in tier-two countries that will likely “bristle at the fact that their AI ambitions depend on Washington’s goodwill and that they are being deliberately kept a generation behind the frontier,” CSIS wrote. And it could drive more open source AI like DeepSeek to be key to development in tier-two nations, perhaps further endangering US global leadership in AI, CSIS suggested.
“Ironically, the AI Diffusion Framework, meant to lock in American advantage, may instead midwife the very outcome it sought to prevent—an alternate AI stack and increased open-source development where China, as its most prolific contributor, emerges as the de facto leader,” CSIS reported.
China wooing countries targeted by rule, Microsoft says
But according to Smith, some parts of the rule should be preserved, like datacenter restrictions, including “qualitative provisions” that “ensure that AI technology components are deployed in certified, secure, and trusted datacenters.” That part of the rule, Smith suggested, “helps reduce the risk of chip diversion to China.”
And other parts of the rule can be strengthened, Smith wrote, such as ensuring the Commerce Department has resources to enforce it and “expedite approvals” for any countries in the middle tier who may appeal to either move into the top tier or limit tier-two restrictions.
